2011. márc. 5.

Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration February 2011

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Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed were mixed in February while remaining epically distressed by historic standards.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 5.993 million or 43.9% of all unemployed workers while the median number of weeks unemployed declined to 21.2 weeks and the average stay on unemployment jumped to 37.1 weeks, a new high for the series.

Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today’s sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.

Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: February 2011

Today’s employment situation report showed that the full time unemployment rate declined to 9.5% of the civilian workforce still remaining very near the highest rate seen in 41 years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers full time workers to be those “who have expressed a desire to work full time (35 hours or more per week) or are on layoff from full-time jobs”.

Full time jobless workers currently account for roughly 88.5% of all unemployed workers.

Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation February 2011

Today’s Employment Situation Report showed that in February, net nonfarm payrolls increased by 192,000 while private nonfarm payrolls added a notable 222,000 as the unemployment rate declined to 8.9%.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.21% since last month remaining a whopping 6.32% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 though, on a year-over-year basis, private jobs showed a notable increase of 1.43%.

Extending the Pain for Your Benifit

Since the middle of 2008 the federal government has been extending unemployment insurance under the presupposed notion that they were helping those in need who had been unduly impacted by the harsh circumstances of the economic decline.

Yet, in a new study, Bhashkar Mazumder, senior economist and director, Chicago Census Research Data Center provides some pretty compelling evidence (along with a summarization of other similar studies with similar conclusions) that these unemployment extensions simply increased the unemployment rate and extended the average stay on unemployment insurance.

In fact, Mazumder estimates that the EUC 2008 extended unemployment policy (allowing for 99 weeks of unemployment insurance in most states with a national average of 95 weeks) added roughly 1% to the unemployment rate since its implementation.

This represents a fairly significant policy blunder when you consider that the additional 1% higher unemployment rate equates to roughly 1.5 million additional people remaining underutilized for a longer duration resulting in a slower recovery and a greater loss of skills.

Of course, Congress believed that what they were doing was simply a benefit to the individuals feeling the hurt from the historic economic crisis but, in the aggregate, their action was a net negative effectively extending the pain and suffering of the entire economy.

Further, one has to consider the sense of taking a policy that was originally structured as a sound and balanced (i.e. using actuarial science) insurance program and extending its application to nearly twice the duration simply because legislators believed that they need to lend a helping hand to constituents.